Wednesday, April 24, 2024
More
    Home Blog Page 1916

    The Macintosh Corner – Good News From the Apple Orchard

    It’s an exciting time to be a Macintosh user and owner. Things are
    looking good for Apple this year with a number of new product
    releases already in the marketplace and several more to come. Shares
    of Apple stock have recently been spiking into the $20 range after
    hovering under $14 for several months.

    While Apple’s market share remains a flat 3 percent of the total personal
    computer space, analysts have become optimistic with Apple’s latest
    offerings.

    Apple’s online iTunes music store has proven to be a successful and
    groundbreaking new innovation. In the two months since its opening,
    Macintosh users have downloaded more than 5 million songs, many of
    which are offered as single tracks for 99 cents each. The iTunes
    music store is the first successful pay as you go music downloading
    service offered on the Internet.

    Currently the service is available only for Macintosh users running
    OSX and using Apple’s iTunes music playing, recording and downloading
    software.

    Analysts are nearly giddy awaiting the day when Apple releases iTunes
    to the legions of Microsoft Windows users. This will make the service
    accessible to an audience many times the size of Apple’s core
    customers.

    Rounding out the success of iTunes is Apple’s iPod digital music
    player. Introduced in late 2001, the latest generation of the iPod
    can hold up to 7,500 songs in a package thinner than that of a
    standard audio cassette. The music players are compatible with both
    Apple’s Macintosh computers and Windows PCs. Things will be really
    great for Windows iPod owners once iTunes is ported to their platform.

    On the Macintosh hardware front, Apple recently unveiled their new
    Power Macintosh G5 line of computers which are aimed at the
    professional market. The G5 will be the desktop replacement for the
    current G4, which in recent months have seen a sharp decline in sales
    as users in the professional sector have long awaited a Power Mac
    with a faster processor.

    The G5 won’t disappoint. Once they go on sale in August, these
    puppies billed by Apple CEO Steve Jobs “as the fastest computers on
    Earth” will boast a new IBM 970 Power PC chip running at speeds of up
    to 2 ghz with a 3 ghz version promised for late next year. Movie
    making, audio sound recording and image editing will never be as fast
    on any Mac once the G5 comes to market.

    Apple is also putting the finishing touches to their latest operating
    system update. OS X (Version 10.3) will build upon the rock solid
    legacy established by the current and earlier versions of Apple’s
    robust and stable OS based a version of BSD Unix. Once the OS is
    released in the fall, it will among other things feature the
    capability to allow users to make toll free, long distance, video
    phone calls through a high speed internet connection as well as
    enhance many other features already taken for granted in the current
    version.

    Apple continues to open Apple retail stores across the country every
    month. One such store recently opened in Ala Moana Shopping Center
    right here in Hawaii. There users and potential Macintosh convertees
    or “switchers” as Apple likes to call them, can get hands-on
    demonstrations on all of the Macintosh models currently offered for
    sale including the popular iBook line of laptop computers, the
    elegant titanium Powerbook G4s and the entry level eMacs and iMacs.
    Those little iPods, running demos of OS X and the Apple iTunes Music
    Store are all available for switchers and users at the Apple stores.

    It certainly is a good time to be an Apple user and perhaps even an
    Apple investor. After months of declining sales and ho-hum products,
    it now seems that Apple may be on a roll to turn a major corner and
    become a household name through the mix of music and computing
    products that they now offer. See you at the Apple Store!

    ”’Melvin Ah Ching is a Macintosh consultant and user. He runs his own Macintosh Web site at”’ https://www.headgap.com/~macstar

    The Macintosh Corner – Good News From the Apple Orchard

    It’s an exciting time to be a Macintosh user and owner. Things are
    looking good for Apple this year with a number of new product
    releases already in the marketplace and several more to come. Shares
    of Apple stock have recently been spiking into the $20 range after
    hovering under $14 for several months.

    While Apple’s market share remains a flat 3 percent of the total personal
    computer space, analysts have become optimistic with Apple’s latest
    offerings.

    Apple’s online iTunes music store has proven to be a successful and
    groundbreaking new innovation. In the two months since its opening,
    Macintosh users have downloaded more than 5 million songs, many of
    which are offered as single tracks for 99 cents each. The iTunes
    music store is the first successful pay as you go music downloading
    service offered on the Internet.

    Currently the service is available only for Macintosh users running
    OSX and using Apple’s iTunes music playing, recording and downloading
    software.

    Analysts are nearly giddy awaiting the day when Apple releases iTunes
    to the legions of Microsoft Windows users. This will make the service
    accessible to an audience many times the size of Apple’s core
    customers.

    Rounding out the success of iTunes is Apple’s iPod digital music
    player. Introduced in late 2001, the latest generation of the iPod
    can hold up to 7,500 songs in a package thinner than that of a
    standard audio cassette. The music players are compatible with both
    Apple’s Macintosh computers and Windows PCs. Things will be really
    great for Windows iPod owners once iTunes is ported to their platform.

    On the Macintosh hardware front, Apple recently unveiled their new
    Power Macintosh G5 line of computers which are aimed at the
    professional market. The G5 will be the desktop replacement for the
    current G4, which in recent months have seen a sharp decline in sales
    as users in the professional sector have long awaited a Power Mac
    with a faster processor.

    The G5 won’t disappoint. Once they go on sale in August, these
    puppies billed by Apple CEO Steve Jobs “as the fastest computers on
    Earth” will boast a new IBM 970 Power PC chip running at speeds of up
    to 2 ghz with a 3 ghz version promised for late next year. Movie
    making, audio sound recording and image editing will never be as fast
    on any Mac once the G5 comes to market.

    Apple is also putting the finishing touches to their latest operating
    system update. OS X (Version 10.3) will build upon the rock solid
    legacy established by the current and earlier versions of Apple’s
    robust and stable OS based a version of BSD Unix. Once the OS is
    released in the fall, it will among other things feature the
    capability to allow users to make toll free, long distance, video
    phone calls through a high speed internet connection as well as
    enhance many other features already taken for granted in the current
    version.

    Apple continues to open Apple retail stores across the country every
    month. One such store recently opened in Ala Moana Shopping Center
    right here in Hawaii. There users and potential Macintosh convertees
    or “switchers” as Apple likes to call them, can get hands-on
    demonstrations on all of the Macintosh models currently offered for
    sale including the popular iBook line of laptop computers, the
    elegant titanium Powerbook G4s and the entry level eMacs and iMacs.
    Those little iPods, running demos of OS X and the Apple iTunes Music
    Store are all available for switchers and users at the Apple stores.

    It certainly is a good time to be an Apple user and perhaps even an
    Apple investor. After months of declining sales and ho-hum products,
    it now seems that Apple may be on a roll to turn a major corner and
    become a household name through the mix of music and computing
    products that they now offer. See you at the Apple Store!

    ”’Melvin Ah Ching is a Macintosh consultant and user. He runs his own Macintosh Web site at”’ https://www.headgap.com/~macstar

    Freed from SARS

    The people on Taiwan warmly welcomed the World Health Organization

    Freed from SARS

    The people on Taiwan warmly welcomed the World Health Organization

    Freed from SARS

    The people on Taiwan warmly welcomed the World Health Organization

    Holding Legislators Accountable in 2003 – Senate

    0

    The following lists the 25 Senators in the Hawaii State Legislature and their votes on key issues affecting the economy, the business climate, taxes and mandates on business, and the size of government.

    ”ADUJA, MELODIE WILLIAMS, D-KAHUKU”

    ”Voted to Raise Taxes and Fees”

    *NO – Long Term Care Tax Increase (SB 1088)
    *YES – 12.5 Percent General Excise Tax Increase (HB 510)
    *NO – Adding a New Sales Tax of 1 Percent (SB 1040; HB 1554)
    *YES- Adding a New Passenger Facilities Tax (HB 1230)
    *YES- Unemployment Compensation Increase (HB 290)
    *YES – Adds a $20 fee for children attending public school to use textbooks at the school (HB 32)

    ”Voted to Raid Special Funds”

    *YES- Makes Raiding the Hurricane Relief Fund Interest Permanent (HB 640)

    ”Voted to Create New Special Funds”

    *YES – (HB 320 UH; HB 422 Nursing Center can be raided later without accountability)

    ”Voted for More Employer Mandates”

    *YES – Adds more mandates to employers covering health care costs for employees by including coverage for mental health (SB 1321)
    *YES – Mandates Employers Give Certain Meal Breaks to Employees (HB 29)
    *YES – Mandates buyers of Hawaii companies with 100 or more employees retain 50 percent of those employees upon the purchase of the company (SB 1)
    *YES – Will raise the cost of Unemployment Compensation Tax (HB 968)

    ”Voted to Increase Government Spending”

    *YES – Raises salaries for executive branch (SB 1332)
    *YES – Raises salaries for state judges (SB 1333)
    *YES – Increases the cost of running the Department of Education by setting up 15 new complexes and adds more state employees (HB 289)
    *YES – Raises salaries of school administrators, adds to DOE bureaucracy (HB 1175)
    *YES – Funds a study on fixed rail transit (SB 464)

    ”Voted to Help Business, Boost Economy”

    *YES – Hotel and commercial construction tax credit (HB 1400)
    *YES – Koolina construction tax credit (SB 377)
    *YES – Reform of state procurement system (HB 1253)

    ”Votes on Governor

    Bills Passed by the Hawaii State Legislature, Regular Session of 2003

    0

    This publication contains brief descriptions of all bills passed by the Hawaii State Legislature during the Regular Session of 2003. We have included such data as the bill number, title, introducer, description, committee reports, current status, and sections of the Hawaii Revised Statutes affected by the bill. This publication reflects data recorded up to and including May 1, 2003, which is the date that the Legislature adjourned sine die. For your information, under Article III, Section 16 of the Hawaii State Constitution, the governor has 45 days after adjournment sine die (not counting Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays), to consider bills for approval.

    The Legislative Reference Bureau discourages the use of these descriptions of bills as a substitute for the bills passed by the Legislature. These descriptions are meant to be handy reference tools, not substitutes for the text. Copies of bills may be obtained at the various locations mentioned in this report.

    This publication has been created by the Legislative Reference Bureau — Systems Office. Information on the approval of bills, their effective dates, subjects of bills passed, laws affected by bills passed, or any questions covering the data shown may be directed to Dwight Kagawa or Lori Lee Ohta. They are located at the State Capitol, Room 413 and their phone number is (808) 587-0700.

    ”’Ken H. Takayama is the acting director of the Legislative Reference Bureau.”’

    ”Senate Bills that Passed the Legislature”

    *SB 0003 SD1 (SSCR 464) RELATING TO SPECIAL PURPOSE REVENUE BONDS FOR NORTH HAWAII COMMUNITY HOSPITAL, INC.

    Introduced by: Sen. Lorraine Inouye, D-Big Island, this bill authorizes the issuance of special purpose revenue bonds to assist North Hawaii Community Hospital, Inc. for retirement of outstanding debt on existing health care facilities, for retirement of outstanding debt and purchase of leases on the existing equipment, for construction of new additions to existing facilities, for acquisition and installation of additional equipment and other assets, and for renovation and repair of existing facilities. Authorizes the issuance of refunding special purpose revenue bonds to refund the special purpose revenue bonds.

    *SB 0038 HD2 CD1 (CCR 74) RELATING TO THE HAWAII TOURISM AUTHORITY.

    Introduced by: Sen. Donna Kim, D-Kalihi, this bill establishes that the board of directors Hawaii tourism authority shall appoint or retain by contract 1 or more attorneys who are independent of the attorney general, to provide legal services for the authority.

    *SB0041 HD1 CD1 (CCR 61) RELATING TO PUBLIC CONTRACTS.

    Introduced by: Sens. Donna Kim, D-Kalihi, and Willie Espero, D-Ewa, this bill amends provision relating to the powers of the Hawaii tourism authority. Provides that any contract or subcontract, including all written information acquired by the authority during the course of securing and monitoring that contract or subcontract, that is funded with public funds shall be a government record and shall be subject to disclosure in accordance with the uniform Information practices act except for any information deemed proprietary by the person providing information to the authority.

    *SB 0042 SD1 HD1 (HSCR 1328) RELATING TO WATERCRAFT.

    Introduced by: Sen. Cal Kawamoto, D-Waipahu, this bill establishes provision relating to emergency communication devices in ocean recreation. Provides that it shall be unlawful to operate in the waters of the State beyond 1 mile of shore, any vessel required to be registered by the State or documented by the US Coast Guard, or manual or sailed propelled vessel not required to be registered by the State or documented by the US Coast Guard unless the vessel is equipped with properly functioning fixed mount or handheld marine VHF-FM radio (156-162 MHz band) or emergency position indicating radio beacon. Excludes canoes, thrill craft, surfboards, and paddleboards. Provides that kayaks and training sailboats shall be exempt when accompanied by at least 1 vessel that complies.

    *SB 0044 SD2 HD2 CD1 (CCR 89) RELATING TO TRANSPORTATION.

    Introduced by: Sens. Cal Kawamoto, D-Waipahu, Willie Espero, D-Ewa, and Brian Kanno, D-Kapolei, this bill amends provision relating to contracts for concessions; bid required, exception. Provides that a revocable permit issued by the department of transportation for use by state airports may be valid for a period not to exceed 2 years if the director of transportation determines that an extension to the term of a contract or revocable permit is necessary in light of a natural disaster or a continuation of an adverse economic condition occurring within the previous 12 months that would adversely affect the State’s ability to solicit and obtain favorable bid proposals. Amends provisions relating modification of contract terms. Provides that with respect to economic emergency relief, if a public airport concession contract has suffered a reduction of 15 per cent or more in gross receipts for a period of 60 days or more, computed on the average monthly gross receipts for 12 months immediately prior to the date relief is requested or as long as the concessionaire has been in business, whichever period is shorter, and that reduction was substantially caused by a reduction in the east bound or west bound passengers arriving during the period of time, the state official may modify the concession contract by granting rent relief by waiving guaranteed rents and collecting. Establishes provision relating to public airport concession contracts; economic emergency relief terms. Provides that all public airport concession contracts may contain economic emergency relief terms that provide that neither party to the contract shall be liable to the other for any failure, delay, or interruption in the performance of any of the terms, covenants, or conditions of the contract due to causes beyond the control of that party. Further provides that these provisions may also apply to all acts or situations that have the effect of reducing the number of passengers using the airports in the state. Provides that in case of any such reduction, failure, delay, interruption, act, or situation beyond the control of a party or not in the normal course of events that reasonably causes a reduction in eastbound or westbound passengers at a 15 per cent reduction in gross receipts, the parties shall agree to cancel the contract, return all security bonds and allow the concessionaire to do business with the State without prejudice due to such cancellation or modify the contracts terms; including, without limitation, the waiver and reduction of rental payments for a period of time. Requires the State to monthly report to the Legislature of the relief granted under these provisions.

    *SB 0051 RELATING TO COMMERCIAL DRIVER’S LICENSES.

    Introduced by: Sens. Cal Kawamoto, D-Waipahu, and Suzanne Chun Oakland, D-Nuuanu, this bill amends provisions relating to commercial motor vehicle driver’s license. Requires the director of transportation to establish a screening process including approval by a licensed physician to grant an intrastate waiver to persons who are not physically qualified (insulin users).

    This bill was approved by the governor April 16, 2003 and is now referred to as Act 18 2003.

    *SB 0058 SD1 HD2 CD1 (CCR 121) RELATING TO SCHOOL REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE.

    Introduced by: Sens. Norman Sakamoto, D-Moanalua, Gary Hooser, D-Kauai, and Suzanne Chun-Oakland, D-Nuuanu, this bill establishes the Hawaii 3R’s school repair and maintenance fund as a separate fund of Hawaii 3R’s, a Hawaii non-profit organization. Provides that the Hawaii 3R’s shall expend moneys from the fund as grants to organizations or contracts with private vendors for the repair and maintenance of schools. Further provides for the appointment of a Hawaii 3R’s school maintenance and repair advisory board who shall solicit funds; establish criteria for the expenditure of funds; review grant proposals; and make recommendations for grants. Requires matching funds for every dollar of state moneys granted by the fund. Comptroller to annually report to the Legislature. Appropriation to the department of accounting and general services to provide a grant to Helping Hands Hawaii for the school repair and maintenance fund which shall be transferred to Hawaii 3R’s upon determination that Hawaii 3R’s is a nonprofit corporation. Appropriation to the department for a position to coordinate the public and private efforts to repair and maintain public schools provided that the coordinator serves at the pleasure of the comptroller and be exempt from civil service laws. — Provides that upon the determination that Hawaii 3R’s is a qualified nonprofit organization Act 309, session laws of 2001, is amended by repealing the Hawaii school repair and maintenance fund under Helping Hands Hawaii and transfers moneys in the fund to the Hawaii 3R’s fund.

    *SB 0069 SD1 HD1 (HSCR 1265) RELATING TO THE TEACHER EDUCATION COORDINATING COMMITTEE.

    Introduced by Sen. Norman Sakamoto, D-Moanalua, this bill amends provisions relating to the teacher education coordinating committee to include a representative of the Hawaii teacher standards board.

    *SB 0078 SD2 HD1 (HSCR 1502) RELATING TO ELDER ABUSE.

    Introduced by Sens. Roz Baker, D-Maui, Carol Fukunaga, D-Makiki, Suzanne Chun Oakland, D-Nuuanu, and Les Ihara, D-Kaimuki, this bill establishes provision relating to civil penalties and remedies within the department of human services for dependent elder abuse. Authorizes the attorney general to bring civil action against any caregiver who commits abuse of a dependent elder, to prevent, restrain, or remedy such conduct. Provides that any caregiver against whom a civil judgment is entered on a complaint alleging that the caregiver committed abuse against a dependent elder shall be subject to a civil penalty for each day the abuse occurred and the costs of the investigation. Defines abuse to mean actual or imminent physical injury, psychological abuse or neglect, sexual abuse, financial exploitation, negligent treatment, or maltreatment. Defines neglect to mean the reckless disregard for the health, safety, or welfare of a dependent elder that results in injury, loss, or damage, including failure assist in personal hygiene or in the provisions of necessary food, shelter, or clothing; failure to provide or arrange for necessary psychological, physical, or health care; failure to protect from known health or safety hazards; and failure to protect against known acts of abuse by 3rd parties.

    *SB 0088 SD1 HD1 (HSCR 1428) RELATING TO MOTOR VEHICLES OWNED BY MILITARY PERSONNEL.

    Introduced by Sens. Cal Kawamoto, D-Waipahu, and Willie Espero, D-Ewa, this bill amends provision relating to removal; member of armed forces. Provides that a member of the armed forces of the US under contract with an out of state dealer or financial institution identified as lien holder of record on a vehicle registration or vehicle title may remove the vehicle from the State without the consent of the seller.

    *SB0205 SD3 HD2 CD1 (CCR 77) RELATING TO EMPLOYMENT.

    Introduced by Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Waianae, this bill establishes provision relating to paid leave; education of children. Provides that employees shall be eligible for at least 2 hours of paid leave during normal business hours to attend either a mutually scheduled parent teacher conference for the employee’s minor child attending a public or private school in grades kindergarten through 12 or a mutually scheduled parent caregiver conference for the employee’s preschool aged child attending a licensed group child care center. Establishes provisions. Provides that the employee shall take no more than 2 mutually scheduled conferences, per child, in a single calendar year.

    *SB 0209 SD3 HD1 CD1 (CCR 126) RELATING TO PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT.

    Introduced by Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Waianae, this bill sets an appropriation to the department of education for the conversion of 10 month certificated positions to 12-month positions, as needed, for multi track schools.

    *SB 0254 SD2 HD1 CD1 (CCR 93) RELATING TO AGRICULTURE.

    Introduced by Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Waianae, this bill amends Act 259, session laws of 2001, relating to the state budget, as amended by Act 3, 3rd special session of 2001, and by Act 177 session laws of 2002, by amending item A — 4C of AGR 141 in section 91 for fiscal year 2002-2003 to include appurtenant works.

    *SB 0255 SD2 HD1 CD1 (CCR 71) RELATING TO AGRICULTURE.

    Introduced by Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Waianae, this bill establishes provision relating to private restrictions on agricultural uses and activities; not allowed. Provides that agricultural uses and activities on lands classified as agricultural, shall not be restricted by any private agreement contained in any deed, lease, agreement of sale, or other conveyance of land recorded in the bureau of conveyances after the effective date, that subject such agricultural lands to any servitude, including but not limited to covenants, easements, or equitable and reciprocal negative servitudes. Provides that any such private restriction limiting or prohibiting agricultural use or activity shall be voidable subject to special restrictions enacted by the county ordinance by the person who is occupying and using the land classified as agricultural, except that restrictions taken to protect environmental or cultural resources shall not be void or voidable.

    *SB 0295 SD1 HD1 CD1 (CCR 51) RELATING TO MOTOR VEHICLE TOWING.

    Introduced by Sen. Willie Espero, D-Ewa, this bill establishes provisions relating to the regulation of towing operations. Authorizes the counties to enact and enforce ordinances regulating towing operations.

    Declining Dollar's Many Dangers

    The dollar is lower again against the euro Tuesday, so that one euro is now worth $1.13, a fresh four-year high for the European currency. The dollar has lost almost 19 percent of its value against the euro in the past year and 6 percent of its value against the Japanese Yen. It looks set to weaken further, posing dangers for the United States and the rest of the world.

    There is a simple reason for the dollar’s fall. The United States has had a large deficit on current account (the broadest measure of trade, including services, like tourism, and dividends) for several years. The annual deficit in 2002 was its biggest ever, at half a trillion dollars. Close to 5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. Capital inflows into the United States used to exceed the current account deficit and the “extra” demand for dollars tended to push its value up. But now that is no longer the case. Capital inflows are not sufficiently high to offset the current account deficit and the US currency is weakening.

    It is a trend that poses dangers for the United States and for the whole world economy.

    In the first place, the falling dollar might be seen as positive for the United States. U.S. companies’ output is made cheaper for foreign buyers, while foreign buyers themselves lose competitiveness in the American market. A weaker currency should help the United States to export more and will tend to reduce its imports as consumers in the United States find domestic produce cheaper relative to imported goods. The huge current account deficit should decrease. Greater balance will be achieved. This is how free currency movement can be a good thing.

    Usually, however, a falling currency, also poses a threat, of higher inflation, because the cost of imported goods rises when the currency — the dollar, in this case — loses value. But, at present, inflation does not appear much of a danger to the U.S. economy. The annual consumer price inflation rate in the United States rose to 3 percent, reflecting the influence of higher oil prices prior to the Iraq war, but the so-called core inflation rate, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is down to just 1.7 percent.

    Statements made by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank officials suggest it is the threat of deflation, in which prices actually fall, that has been troubling them, more than the threat of inflation.

    But the falling dollar does pose other dangers. The United States’ ability to grow in the past ten years despite the current account deficit has hinged on capital inflows. In the late 1990s huge amounts of foreign investment poured into the United States, some of it “direct,” purchasing companies or merging with them, some of it “portfolio,” placing money in stocks and bonds. The inflows helped to feed the boom in U.S. stocks and the economy that lasted until 2001.

    Since then both stocks and the economy have faltered and foreign capital inflows have slumped. Yet it might be argued that the United States needs those inflows now more than ever. For a second deficit is emerging, a fiscal one, as President George W. Bush raises spending, primarily on defense, and cuts taxes. In the current 2003 fiscal year, which began last October, the deficit is officially projected at a little over $300 billion but seems more likely to be of the order of $400 billion. The deficits, fiscal and on current account, need financing. Foreign money is important to both.

    But will foreign buyers be as keen to buy U.S. government securities, or corporate bonds or stocks if the dollar looks likely to fall further? For the Japanese or European buyer, any return on U.S. assets will be eroded if the dollar is plummeting against the Yen or the euro.

    The risk this carries for the United States is that a lack of foreign buyers of Treasuries and other U.S. assets drives down the prices of bonds and stocks. Falling prices for Treasuries drive up their yield and push up other long-term interest rates. The U.S. housing market, which has benefited in the past two years from some of the lowest mortgage interest rates ever recorded, would be vulnerable. A final bastion of the U.S. economy could be undermined and recession would become likely.

    Meanwhile, for the rest of the world, the falling dollar creates danger, too. It means, for example, that European and Japanese exports will be pricier in the United States. Growth in Germany and France, and even more, in export-dependent Japan, is going to be hurt.

    And that, too, will have knock-on effects. If growth is lower in Europe and Japan, demand for commodities and goods worldwide will be affected. Commodity prices may weaken. The poorer countries of the world are particular victims of that.

    And the United States, too, will not be unaffected. If European and Japanese growth proves weak because of a loss of exports to the United States, then demand for U.S. exports will not be buoyant, even if the declining dollar makes American products cheap.

    The world will be paying a price for relying on the U.S. engine for too long. That engine has worked too hard to keep the U.S and the world economy humming. Its deficits are signs of that. They cannot be cut without pain being felt all around.

    ”’Ian Campbell is the chief economic correspondent for the United Press International and can be reached via email at isc@eudoramail.com”’

    Declining Dollar’s Many Dangers

    The dollar is lower again against the euro Tuesday, so that one euro is now worth $1.13, a fresh four-year high for the European currency. The dollar has lost almost 19 percent of its value against the euro in the past year and 6 percent of its value against the Japanese Yen. It looks set to weaken further, posing dangers for the United States and the rest of the world.

    There is a simple reason for the dollar’s fall. The United States has had a large deficit on current account (the broadest measure of trade, including services, like tourism, and dividends) for several years. The annual deficit in 2002 was its biggest ever, at half a trillion dollars. Close to 5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. Capital inflows into the United States used to exceed the current account deficit and the “extra” demand for dollars tended to push its value up. But now that is no longer the case. Capital inflows are not sufficiently high to offset the current account deficit and the US currency is weakening.

    It is a trend that poses dangers for the United States and for the whole world economy.

    In the first place, the falling dollar might be seen as positive for the United States. U.S. companies’ output is made cheaper for foreign buyers, while foreign buyers themselves lose competitiveness in the American market. A weaker currency should help the United States to export more and will tend to reduce its imports as consumers in the United States find domestic produce cheaper relative to imported goods. The huge current account deficit should decrease. Greater balance will be achieved. This is how free currency movement can be a good thing.

    Usually, however, a falling currency, also poses a threat, of higher inflation, because the cost of imported goods rises when the currency — the dollar, in this case — loses value. But, at present, inflation does not appear much of a danger to the U.S. economy. The annual consumer price inflation rate in the United States rose to 3 percent, reflecting the influence of higher oil prices prior to the Iraq war, but the so-called core inflation rate, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is down to just 1.7 percent.

    Statements made by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank officials suggest it is the threat of deflation, in which prices actually fall, that has been troubling them, more than the threat of inflation.

    But the falling dollar does pose other dangers. The United States’ ability to grow in the past ten years despite the current account deficit has hinged on capital inflows. In the late 1990s huge amounts of foreign investment poured into the United States, some of it “direct,” purchasing companies or merging with them, some of it “portfolio,” placing money in stocks and bonds. The inflows helped to feed the boom in U.S. stocks and the economy that lasted until 2001.

    Since then both stocks and the economy have faltered and foreign capital inflows have slumped. Yet it might be argued that the United States needs those inflows now more than ever. For a second deficit is emerging, a fiscal one, as President George W. Bush raises spending, primarily on defense, and cuts taxes. In the current 2003 fiscal year, which began last October, the deficit is officially projected at a little over $300 billion but seems more likely to be of the order of $400 billion. The deficits, fiscal and on current account, need financing. Foreign money is important to both.

    But will foreign buyers be as keen to buy U.S. government securities, or corporate bonds or stocks if the dollar looks likely to fall further? For the Japanese or European buyer, any return on U.S. assets will be eroded if the dollar is plummeting against the Yen or the euro.

    The risk this carries for the United States is that a lack of foreign buyers of Treasuries and other U.S. assets drives down the prices of bonds and stocks. Falling prices for Treasuries drive up their yield and push up other long-term interest rates. The U.S. housing market, which has benefited in the past two years from some of the lowest mortgage interest rates ever recorded, would be vulnerable. A final bastion of the U.S. economy could be undermined and recession would become likely.

    Meanwhile, for the rest of the world, the falling dollar creates danger, too. It means, for example, that European and Japanese exports will be pricier in the United States. Growth in Germany and France, and even more, in export-dependent Japan, is going to be hurt.

    And that, too, will have knock-on effects. If growth is lower in Europe and Japan, demand for commodities and goods worldwide will be affected. Commodity prices may weaken. The poorer countries of the world are particular victims of that.

    And the United States, too, will not be unaffected. If European and Japanese growth proves weak because of a loss of exports to the United States, then demand for U.S. exports will not be buoyant, even if the declining dollar makes American products cheap.

    The world will be paying a price for relying on the U.S. engine for too long. That engine has worked too hard to keep the U.S and the world economy humming. Its deficits are signs of that. They cannot be cut without pain being felt all around.

    ”’Ian Campbell is the chief economic correspondent for the United Press International and can be reached via email at isc@eudoramail.com”’

    The Secret To Achieving Targeted Businesses Growth

    0

    Joseph had reached the end of his rope.

    It had been just 10-months since he launched his residential construction business when Joseph was referred to me. As we completed his “New Player Benchmark” (all clients at RPM Success Group are considered “players” in the game of business) Joseph was expressing how frustrated he was and questioning whether he’d make it to the one-year anniversary for his company. When Joseph started to list the methods of marketing he had applied up to that point, I immediately saw why he was so frustrated.

    Joseph had fallen into a common trap that many business owners fall prey to.

    There are literally hundreds of ways to market your business and create surging streams of new prospects and clients. But all those methods boil yield three specific impacts – the only three ways to grow your business.

    Each and every marketing method you will ever employ will (primarily) either:

    *Increase the number of clients you serve.
    *Increase the number of times you serve them in a week/month/year.
    *Increase the total dollar amount of each sale.

    Choose a great marketing method that doesn’t match the type of growth your business needs and your success will be uncertain at best. Joseph knew what his goals were, but he didn’t understand how each marketing method he chose would grow his business in a different way.

    For example, one area Joseph put quite a bit of energy into was a customer referral program. He promoted it to everyone he met, provided excellent incentives to his few current clients and even placed ads touting the benefits of working with a contractor who grew their business through referrals vs. pure marketing. While all these efforts were rooted in a proven low-cost, hi-impact marketing principle – investing nearly 50% of his marketing resources into this method was not having the impact on the business that Joseph had intended.

    Joseph had matched a great marketing method (incentive based referral system) with the wrong goal (bringing in a significant volume of new prospects.) While this method would have been an excellent tool to compliment other methods, it should not have been the primary way Joseph expected to quickly grow his business from scratch. As a new business owner, Joseph’s job was to focus on #1 from the above list – increasing the number of clients he attracted so he could build a critical mass of satisfied clients who would help him achieve the type of exponential growth he was looking for.

    To correct this, what Joseph and I did together (and what you will need to do yourself) was to clarify exactly what his current stage of growth was and what his immediate goals were. Joseph and I sat down and developed a simple strategic plan that would allow him to attract a significant number of pre-qualified prospects while simultaneously build up his back end. Armed with this strategy, Joseph and I were able to look at a targeted number of ways he could achieve this specific goal.

    The choice he made was to meet with a new window manufacturer in his area and form a strategic partnership deal that would feed him plenty of new “basic” installation jobs. It turns out that more than 60% of those window replacement clients added on at least $5000 in additional work to the core work – plus they were now Joseph’s clients, not the manufacturers. Within just 9-months Joseph had the critical mass he needed to attract more business than he could handle without one dollar being spent on advertising.

    Once you understand your growth stage and know what your marketing goal is for that stage, then (and only then) will you be able to choose the best marketing method to use.

    For instance, let’s say you’re an established retail business and you have a solid base of satisfied clients. They visit your store and buy every time they come in – but they visit irregularly. You can employ a more varied set of marketing methods with different impacts on growth. Actually, I’d advise you to employ at least three marketing methods so you can exponentially increase your business growth.

    You’d want to:
    *Simultaneously attract more new clients (maybe with a special sale);
    *Increase the frequency of purchases made by clients (possibly starting with something simple like a frequent buyers club);
    *Increase the total of each purchase made.

    This last point is not what you think though. You don’t have to raise prices. Actually you can lower individual prices and still increase the total of every sale you make. (Need a hint how? Can you say “value meal”?…)

    Many people ask what I mean when I say exponential growth. Here’s a pretty straightforward explanation.

    If you only increase one of the three areas by 10 percent you’ll grow linearly – a total growth for the business of 10 percent. But if you grow all three areas by 10 percent you’ll grow geometrically – a total exponential growth of 33.3 percent. The point is that growth of 33.3 percent in any one area is a serious challenge. But increasing growth by just 10 percent in each area is pretty painless with the right methods.

    No matter what stage of growth you’re at, most of the growth goals you have can be met by using low-cost, hi-impact marketing principles. That means lower investments in your marketing with higher returns.

    Stop restricting your growth, accepting dismal returns on your efforts and spending more money on marketing that you need to. Start on the road to exponential growth today. Simply determine your specific growth stage, clearly define your immediate growth goals and then step outside the box of conventional marketing to pick the best, low-cost hi-impact marketing method that will help you get there.

    ”’John-Paul Micek is the lead business strategist and COO of the leading international business coaching organization RPM Success Group