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| Richard O. Rowland |
The Honolulu City Council acted on Friday, December 22, 2006, to commit Honolulu to build a multi-billion dollar fixed guideway transit system. Honolulu had a similar one in 1906. The December 24, 2006, The Honolulu Advertiser observed in “Past: Much Merriment on Christmas eve in 1906” where it was noted, “The train service could have been vastly improved by the addition of a few cars in the early part of the evening.”
Such fixed guideway train service was abandoned as obsolete later on in the 20th Century. Now our Council had decided to give the fixed guideway concept life once again. “Finally, we are able to move forward” trumpets the Honolulu Advertiser lead editorial 12/24/06 on the subject.
I recently was part of a small gathering in the NFIB Conference Room Washington, DC. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich came in during the meeting and gave an inspiring talk about the future. One of his points was this:
Picture the world of 1875. Then picture the world of 2006. The technological change that will occur in the next 20 years will match the 1875-2006 pace. From no telephones to cell phone/computers? From looking at the moon to going there? Who could have anticipated that?
Seven of the nine members of our Honolulu City Council are moving boldly into such a future. They are using faith and hope looking into a crystal ball firmly planted in the year 2000 or so with a backward focused lens. They do not know the future. No one does. But they are willing to bet the money of taxpayers on their vision. Please note that such is definitely not the vision of their constituent customer/citizens who want faster, less congested, flexible transportation. Road congestion relief is what the customer wants. But it is not what the seven or the mayor want.
What bothers me the most about all this is the obvious absence of real accountability for political action taken. If a business person decided to build a train, he would pour his own money into the project with the risk of losing it all.
Could it be that the project doesn’t “pencil” out? Or that the pencil used by the seven has no lead? A couple of sentences in the Honolulu Star-Bulletin lead editorial 12/24/06 say it all: “If successful and managed well, the project will enliven the city. If poorly directed, it could spoil Honolulu.”
Ask yourself this question: What, pray tell, has the government of Honolulu ever managed well, and if any, what are the chances of doing that with this 6-8-10 billion dollar fixed walk into an unknown future? Then ask, should it fail terribly, what real consequence will befall the sinful seven? Maybe a bit of bad-mouthing but absolutely nothing genuine consequences. If eventual failure would produce loss of all personal savings and government pensions for the proponents, the vote would have been 9-0.
Which brings us to the “paying for it” subject. Starting January 1, 2007 a 12.5 percent increase in the Hawaii excise tax will go into effect for Honolulu to pay off the cost of the transit system. The tax will go from 4.166 percent to 4.712 percent.
To tax is the power to destroy is a generally accepted truth. What will this tax increase destroy? To find out we ran the numbers through the Grassroot Institute State Tax Analysis Modeling Program (STAMP) for Hawaii.
The basic STAMP model is the product of the Beacon Hill Institute of Boston (http://www.beaconhill.org) and is designed specifically for each state.
The results are:
- Loss of jobs in Honolulu: 3,044 in 2007, 3,821 by 2010.
- Loss of investment in Honolulu: $89.6 Million in 2007, up to $132.4 Million in 2010.
To put those members in perspective, please note that the recent closure of Del Monte’s operations in Hawaii caused 550 or so jobs to be at lost. There was great hue and cry by government and media about how terrible that event was. With regard to investment, the Governor and Office of Hawaiian Affairs (OHA) claim that there is some $60-70 million coming to the state of Hawaii each year for native Hawaiian programs and that loss of that money would be a major catastrophe to our state. Please note losses above are for Honolulu only.
Yes, Virginia, our seven council members believe in Santa Claus. Armed with that faith, they are moving us “forward”---very likely into a black hole.
Dick Rowland is the President of the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii. Reach him via email at mailto:dick@grassrootinstitute.org or log onto http://www.grassrootinstitute.org
