The city administration is pushing ahead with a $6 billion transit project whose tax will economically affect every consumer on Oahu for years to come. Yet it is apparently skewing the Alternatives Analysis (AA) report to show heavy rail as the preferred alternative when in fact the managed lane alternative might do a much better job of reducing congestion and could be constructed without raising taxes. A faithful public discourse of this immensely important issue cannot be conducted without a fair and accurate analysis of the alternatives. The numerous flaws of the current managed lane alternative make it impossible to choose what’s best for Honolulu unless the administration to amends the AA with a managed lane system that will be respected by authorities in the field.
Managed Lanes Explained
We have heard much about the rail system but little about how managed lanes work. The ideal managed lane system would be comprised of three lanes that are electronically controlled to give priority to public transportation, vanpools, and emergency vehicles. Any unused capacity would be used by private transportation. Congestion would be controlled by an innovative dynamic toll system that continually adjusts the price, making it low enough to keep the lanes full, yet high enough to curb congestion. For example the morning commute toll would charge $2 at 5am, gradually increment to $5 at peak traffic time, then quickly drop back to $2 by 930am.
The Best of All Worlds
Managed lanes deliver nearly all of rail’s benefits, accommodate the reality of today’s commuter needs, and won’t require raising taxes. They provide all the public transit benefits of a rail system because buses travel freely at 60mph yet managed lanes serve the modern commuter who today must get many other things done on their way to and from home. Perhaps the most interesting business perspective on managed lanes is that they may not require raising taxes. Public Private Partnerships across the country have built express lanes with private funds that return the project to the public once the investment is repaid from toll revenue. Managed lanes are at the forefront of transportation technology and deserve a best effort estimate.
Cost Flaws
I believe that the AA cost estimate of $2.6 billion for a managed lane project is significantly inflated. A 3 lane toll road in Tampa, Florida was built for $30 million/mile and applied to our 14 mile project would cost $420 million. Even generous allowances for higher prices of construction materials in 2006 and Hawaii’s higher costs estimate the project at approximately $900 million. Other obvious cost flaws in the managed lanes proposal include adding 381 buses to today’s fleet of 525 and 5,200 new parking stalls, all of which are largely unnecessary.
Capacity Flaw
There are some serious traffic capacity flaws in the AA with respect to managed lanes. Only a two lane project is proposed yet the existing zipper lane is eliminated, effectively providing a net benefit of only one additional lane to handle traffic. It is under such seriously handicapped conditions that a rail system can be shown to be preferred over managed lanes.
Congestion Reduction Flaw
The AA reports that rail will reduce commute time, yet the estimates exclude the time spent traveling on rail. Add this back into the report and you would see that overall commute times are higher than the other alternatives. This is evidenced by the AA’s own report showing that trips between Aiea and Waikiki or Manoa will be faster by auto than by rail.
Why?
One can only speculate as to why the City is apparently misinforming the public about viable alternatives. In our opinion this is not an effective way to garner public trust and support. The solution is to amend the AA so that it reflects a defendable managed lane alternative. If we’re going forward with a project that will be with us for generations and affect millions, at least let’s make sure we have a respectable analysis to help us make this most important decision.
'''Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD, is a Professor of Transportation Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Hawaii at Manoa. Reach him via email at mailto:pdp@hawaii.edu
