Not so fast. Moderate Blue Dog Democrats say they are increasingly nervous about voting on a bill before knowing exactly what the Senate would be willing to pass -- a fear exacerbated by yesterday's vote in which 12 Senate Democrats and Independent Joe Lieberman voted with Republicans against a budget-busting plan to adjust Medicare reimbursements for doctors and hospitals. That vote cast into doubt just how much Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can corral his party's moderates. "It's a sign that members want to exercise prudence during a recession," Senator Lieberman told me last night.

Prudence is what Blue Dog Democrats are also counseling.

"For those of us in rural districts, the robust public option would be like a BTU tax vote," said North Dakota Democrat Rep. Earl Pomeroy. He was referring to an unpopular 1993 Clinton energy tax bill that ended up costing many freshman Democrats their seats in the 1994 GOP landslide. Even Vice President Al Gore later acknowledged the BTU vote had been harmful to his party.

Speaker Pelosi also has a calendar problem. Because bringing a bill to the floor next week is logistically impossible, she won't be able to hold a vote before the week of November 2. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel will address a joint session of Congress on November 3, so no business will be done that day.

That means the health care bill can only reach the floor after voters in Virginia and New Jersey elect governors and special House elections occur in California and New York. Should Democrats fare badly in those elections, Blue Dog Democrats may become even more spooked and demand revisions in Speaker Pelosi's work product. That, in turn, could alienate many in her caucus who insist that any health care bill include a government-run insurance program, or public option.

John Fund is a columnist for the Wall Street Journal

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