The Draft of the Oahu Regional Transit Plan (ORTP) projects that the Kapolei to University of Hawaii-Manoa rail transit line will cost $2.57 billion in 2005 dollars.

However, the 1992 plan projected a cost of $1.86 billion in 1991 dollars for a Waikele to UH line. Here’s why the city estimate is too low:

*Inflation between 1991 and 2005 increased 32.6 percent, which would inflate the $1.86 billion to $2.45 billion.

*On top of that we have to allow for the additional 8 miles between Waikele and Kapolei at about $0.12 billion a mile, or $0.96 billion.

*That all adds up to $3.4 billion, or 33 percent greater than the city estimate — and even that is before cost overruns.

In addition the Draft ORTP says, “The City and County will obtain $456 million in federal funds (in 2005 dollars) to assist in the cost to construct the rapid transit system.”

Whatever happened to Congressman Neil Abercrombie’s promised $1.2 billion for the rail — which he pledged in the city council meetings before the tax hike to fund the rail was approved.

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