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    Overcoming Habits

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    “Suzanne Gelb Image”

    Dear Readers:

    As an added resource, over the next few months I will supplement my answers with self-help materials. Supplemental reading for today’s answers can be found in my book “Welcome Home. A Book About Overcoming Addictions” (pp. 65-66 for Answer 1; pp. 67-68 for Answer 2). For more information visit my Web site at www.DrGelbSays.com.

    ”Reaching Out – Am I Talking Too Much?”

    Dear Dr. Gelb:

    I’m 15 years old and going through a lot of changes. I spend a lot of time on the phone with my friends, not just socializing, but because I need them to reassure me about what I am doing with my life. When I can’t reach someone, I panic. I know that support is a good thing, but am I going overboard?

    Talker

    A: Dr. Gelb says . . .

    Dear Talker:

    Your question reveals that you have developed a dependency on external stimuli for a sense of emotional security. Your thought processes are obviously not providing you with the intellectual challenge and entertainment that most of us rely on when we are alone. It is OK to be alone and not feel lonely. Consider practicing independence. Your habit of needing someone to talk to can be replaced with something more suitable. Then the old habit is likely to soon subside.

    ”Nail-Biting – How do I Stop it?”

    Dear Dr. Gelb:

    Nail-biting is a well-known habit that some people have relating to anxiety and nervousness. I know of someone whose nail biting often goes to the point of causing slight bleeding. I have also heard of people having habits that involve self-inflicting pain. Why would people do this to themselves?

    Nail Biter

    A: Dr. Gelb says . . .

    Dear Biter:

    Most people have a hard time admitting that they are afflicted with a painful, destructive habit. Yet typically, nail biting and other similar habits are just that — habits. People who are afflicted with such habits have invariably taught their bodies to perform the particular behavior at a given emotional signal such as anxiety, fear, anger, jealousy or love. Any of these emotions when threatened or activated, can be a trigger for the body to engage in a habit, be it nail-biting, cuticle picking, lip-biting, eyes blinking or sniffing, for example. These are sometimes called ticks and from a psychological standpoint, for adults these habits can be as annoying as stuttering is to the stutterer.

    One approach that has been effective for some people is to try to substitute one habit for another less harmful one, such as whistling (have you ever got on the elevator with a compulsive whistler? Annoying huh).

    Some people who have not been successful with this type of approach, have sought help from a properly trained, credentialed hypnotherapist who can assist individuals to comfortably and safely reprogram their choices and teach their bodies to refrain from engaging in a particular habit. Then it is not necessary to trade one habit for another. Good luck.

    ”’Suzanne J. Gelb, Ph.D., J.D. authors this daily column, Dr. Gelb Says, which answers questions about daily living and behavior issues. Dr. Gelb is a licensed psychologist in private practice in Honolulu. She holds a Ph.D. in Psychology and a Ph.D. in Human Services. Dr. Gelb is also a published author of a book on Overcoming Addictions and a book on Relationships.”’

    ”’This column is intended for entertainment use only and is not intended for the purpose of psychological diagnosis, treatment or personalized advice. For more about the column’s purpose, see”’ “An Online Intro to Dr. Gelb Says”

    ”’Email your questions to mailto:DrGelbSays@hawaiireporter.com More information on Dr. Gelb’s services and related resources available at”’ https://www.DrGelbSays.com

    Legislative Hearing Notices – Feb. 10, 2003

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    The following hearing notices, which are subject to change, were sorted and taken from the Hawaii State Capitol Web site. Please check that site for updates and/or changes to the schedule at https://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/site1/docs/hearing/hearing2.asp?press1=docs&button1=current Go there and click on the Hearing Date to view the Hearing Notice.

    Hearings notices for both House and Senate measures in all committees:

    Hearing

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB15 RELATING TO THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB15 RELATING TO THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB24 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB24 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB666 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB666 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB784 RELATING TO THE BOARD OF EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB784 RELATING TO THE BOARD OF EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB1017 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB1017 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB1522 RELATING TO CHARTER SCHOOLS. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB1522 RELATING TO CHARTER SCHOOLS. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB1700 RELATING TO CHARTER SCHOOLS. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 AM SB1700 RELATING TO CHARTER SCHOOLS. EDU

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB151 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION TO STUDY THE FEASIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A TECHNOLOGY-FOCUSED, COMMUNITY-BASED CENTER IN WAIALUA TOWN. EDB

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB285 RELATING TO ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURE. EDB

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB685 RELATING TO ENTERPRISE ZONE. EDB

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB697 RELATING TO PROCUREMENT. EDB

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB962 MAKING A MATCHING FUNDS APPROPRIATION TO SUPPORT A PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO MARKET AND PROMOTE INCENTIVES PROVIDED BY ACT
    221, SESSION LAWS OF HAWAII 2001, FOR INVESTORS TO INVEST IN HIGH TECHNOLOGY IN HAWAII. EDB

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB1056 RELATING TO ENTERPRISE ZONES. EDB

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB1393 RELATING TO THE CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER. EDB

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB550 RELATING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MEDICAL FACILITIES. EDB/HLT

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB551 RELATED TO THE STATE HEALTH PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT AGENCY. EDB/HLT

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB1459 RELATING TO DRIVER LICENSING. TRN/INT

    2/10/03 8:30 AM HB1569 RELATING TO TAXATION. WLH

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 9:00 AM SB1279 RELATING TO TOBACCO. HTH/JHW

    2/10/03 9:00 AM SB1367 RELATING TO THE HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION. HTH/JHW

    2/10/03 9:00 AM SB1576 RELATING TO MENTAL HEALTH CARE IN CORRECTIONAL FACILITIES. HTH/JHW

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB657 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR THE FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY COMMEMORATION OF THE KOREAN WAR COMMISSION. INT

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1473 RELATING TO INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. INT

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1645 RELATING TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN OFFICE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS. INT

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HCR17 APPROVING AND AUTHORIZING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF STATE-PROVINCE RELATIONS OF FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE OF HAWAII OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE PROVINCE OF ILOCOS NORTE OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES. INT

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HR17 APPROVING AND AUTHORIZING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF STATE-PROVINCE RELATIONS OF FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE OF HAWAII OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE PROVINCE OF ILOCOS NORTE OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES. INT

    2/10/03 9:00 AM SB95 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR THE ORBITS PROGRAM. JHW

    2/10/03 9:00 AM SB95 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR THE ORBITS PROGRAM. JHW

    2/10/03 9:00 AM SB1267 RELATING TO TOBACCO. JHW

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB722 RELATING TO MOTOR VEHICLES. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB795 RELATING TO STATEWIDE TRAFFIC CODE. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB807 RELATING TO CHAPTER 291E. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB835 RELATING TO PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB836 RELATING TO TRANSPORTATION. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB837 RELATING TO TRANSPORTATION. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB838 RELATING TO TRANSPORTATION. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB897 RELATING TO AIRLINES. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB966 RELATING TO HIGHWAYS. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB993 RELATING TO RECONSTRUCTED VEHICLES. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1230 RELATING TO TRANSPORTATION. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1235 RELATING TO COMMERCIAL DRIVER LICENSING. TRN

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB48 HD1 RELATING TO THE LEASING OF SUBMERGED LANDS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB53 RELATING TO DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION’S MARITIME RELATED USES. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB86 RELATING TO LAND USE. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB89 RELATING TO HAWAIIAN AFFAIRS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB426 RELATING TO PUBLIC LANDS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB545 RELATING TO FIREARMS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB637 RELATING TO MULLET FISHING. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB745 RELATING TO LANDOWNER’S LIABILITY. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB765 RELATING TO LANDOWNER’S LIABILITY. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1210 RELATING TO NONCOMMERCIAL PIERS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1211 RELATING TO PENALTIES FOR VIOLATIONS WITHIN THE CONSERVATION DISTRICT. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1214 RELATING TO PUBLIC LAND LIABILITY. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1327 RELATING TO THE CONVEYANCE TAX. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1453 RELATING TO RESIDENTIAL LEASEHOLDS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1454 RELATING TO THE COUNTIES’ EMINENT DOMAIN POWERS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1549 RELATING TO THE COUNTIES’ EMINENT DOMAIN POWERS. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1614 RELATING TO LAND USE. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1659 RELATING TO CONDOMINIUM AND COOPERATIVE HOUSING CORPORATION LEASE-TO-FEE CONVERSION. WLH

    2/10/03 9:00 AM HB1037 RELATING TO THE USE OF HERBICIDES IN PUBLIC PARKS. WLH/EEP

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB10 RELATING TO COUNSELING. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB22 RELATING TO MASTER TEACHERS. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB62 RELATING TO THE EMPLOYEES’ RETIREMENT SYSTEM. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB63 RELATING TO THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB75 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB337 RELATING TO THE MANAGEMENT OF SCHOOL FACILITIES. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB338 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB631 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB656 RELATING TO SCHOOL-LEVEL MINOR REPAIRS AND MAINTENANCE ACCOUNTS. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB954 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR FAMILIES FOR RESOURCES FOR EARLY ACCESS TO LEARNING. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB965 AUTHORIZING THE ISSUANCE OF GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS AND MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF PRE-SCHOOL FACILITIES. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1686 RELATING TO THE ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL PURPOSE REVENUE BONDS FOR CALVARY EPISCOPAL PRESCHOOL AND DAY CARE CENTER. EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB349 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU/SAT

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB11 RELATING TO TEMPORARY PUBLIC SCHOOL FACILITIES. EDU/TMG

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB403 RELATING TO THE MANAGEMENT OF DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION FACILITIES. EDU/TMG

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1543 RELATING TO DRIVERS EDUCATION. EDU/TMG

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB469 RELATING TO EMPLOYMENT PRACTICES. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB470 RELATING TO EMPLOYMENT PRACTICES. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB694 RELATING TO THE WHISTLEBLOWERS’ PROTECTION ACT. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB764 RELATING TO THE WHISTLEBLOWERS’ PROTECTION ACT. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB773 RELATING TO UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB778 RELATING TO TEMPORARY DISABILITY INSURANCE. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB778 RELATING TO TEMPORARY DISABILITY INSURANCE. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB780 RELATING TO TEMPORARY PARTIAL DISABILITY. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB858 RELATING TO TEMPORARY DISABILITY BENEFITS TO CARE FOR FAMILY MEMBERS WITH A SERIOUS HEALTH CONDITION. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB895 RELATING TO SICK LEAVE FOR PUBLIC EMPLOYEES. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB896 RELATING TO SICK LEAVE FOR EMPLOYEES IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB921 RELATING TO HAWAII WORKSITE TEMPORARY RESTRAINING ORDER ACT. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB931 RELATING TO HAWAII VICTIMS LEAVE ACT. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1071 RELATING TO INDEPENDENT MEDICAL EXAMINATIONS. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1224 RELATING TO THE WEEKLY UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1371 RELATING TO THE CONFIDENTIALITY OF CONSULTATION REPORTS. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1590 RELATING TO LABOR. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1638 RELATING TO COSTS OF PROCEEDINGS IN WORKERS’ COMPENSATION APPEALS. LBR

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB761 RELATING TO THE HEALTH BENEFITS TRUST FUND. LBR/JHW

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB770 RELATING TO UNION ORGANIZING. LBR/JHW

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB796 PROPOSING AN AMENDMENT TO ARTICLE XVI OF THE CONSTITUTION OF THE STATE OF HAWAII. LBR/JHW

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB655 RELATING TO HURRICANE SHELTERS. TMG/EDU

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB496 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR COMPLETING FENCE ENCLOSURES AROUND LANA`I’S WATERSHED. WLA

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1207 AUTHORIZING ISSUANCE OF GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS AND MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR MANELE SMALL BOAT HARBOR. WLA

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1209 AUTHORIZING THE ISSUANCE OF GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS AND MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR HANA SMALL BOAT HARBORS. WLA

    2/10/03 1:15 PM SB1418 RELATING TO PUBLIC LAND LIABILITY. WLA

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB13 RELATING TO PRESCRIPTION DRUG COST CONTROL. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB18 RELATING TO PHARMACEUTICAL BENEFIT MANAGEMENT COMPANIES. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB43 RELATING TO INSURANCE FRAUD. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB75 RELATING TO CONDOMINIUMS. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB218 RELATING TO TERMINABLE RENTAL ADJUSTMENT CLAUSE VEHICLE LEASES. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB259 HD1 RELATING TO MENTAL HEALTH AND ALCOHOL AND DRUG ABUSE TREATMENT INSURANCE BENEFITS. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB471 HD1 RELATING TO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENTS. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB548 HD1 RELATING TO ANATOMICAL GIFTS. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1013 HD1 RELATING TO EXAMINATIONS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PERMANENT IMPAIRMENT. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1063 HD1 RELATING TO DRIVERS LICENSES. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1103 RELATING TO PROCUREMENT. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1153 RELATING TO TELECOMMUNICATIONS RELAY SERVICES. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1160 RELATING TO THE EXAMINATION FOR LICENSURE AS A CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANT. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1171 RELATING TO CONCILIATION PANELS. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1172 RELATING TO THE UNIFORM SECURITIES ACT. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1341 RELATING TO THE CONTRACTORS LICENSE BOARD. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1412 HD1 RELATING TO PROFESSIONAL COUNSELORS. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1594 RELATING TO NONPROFIT CORPORATIONS. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB1631 RELATING TO THE GENERAL EXCISE TAX. CPC

    2/10/03 1:30 PM HB475 RELATING TO THE PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION. CPC/EEP

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB32 HD1 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB244 HD1 RELATING TO HEALTH. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB620 RELATING TO THE JUNIOR RESERVE OFFICERS’ TRAINING CORPS. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB631 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN IMMERSION PROGRAM. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB633 RELATING TO THE HAWAIIAN LANGUAGE IMMERSION PROGRAM. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB934 RELATING TO NATIONAL BOARD CERTIFICATION FOR DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION TEACHERS. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB1175 RELATING TO THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB1340 RELATING TO THE HAWAII TEACHER STANDARDS BOARD. EDN

    2/10/03 2:00 PM HB1350 RELATING TO LIBRARIES. EDN

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB77 RELATING TO EDUCATIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB341 RELATING TO EDUCATIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB667 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB702 RELATING TO DRIVER EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB929 RELATING TO AFTER-SCHOOL PROGRAMS. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB995 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB1072 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR ISPED CLERK TYPISTS. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB1328 RELATING TO THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB1329 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    2/10/03 2:30 PM SB1345 RELATING TO EDUCATION. EDU

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB20 RELATING TO CONTRACTORS. ECD/TMG

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB39 RELATING TO PARKS. ECD/TMG

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB529 RELATING TO CAVE PROTECTION. ECD/TMG

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB774 RELATING TO CORPORATE DISCLOSURE. ECD/TMG

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1172 RELATING TO AIRLINES. ECD/TMG

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1562 RELATING TO TAX CREDITS FOR AIR FREIGHT SERVICE. ECD/TMG

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB78 RELATING TO ELDER ABUSE. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB746 RELATING TO CANCER. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB786 RELATING TO ADOPTION. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB888 RELATING TO CHILD WELFARE. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB926 RELATING TO ADULT PROTECTIVE SERVICES. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB939 RELATING TO RESPITE SERVICES. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB968 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR FAMILY CENTERS. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB979 RELATING TO CHILD WELFARE SERVICES. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1023 RELATING TO ADULT RESIDENTIAL CARE HOMES. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1353 MAKING AN EMERGENCY APPROPRIATION FOR MEDICAID. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1550 RELATING TO DISCLOSURES BY ASSISTED LIVING FACILITIES. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1579 RELATING TO MEDICAL CARE PAYMENTS. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1579 RELATING TO MEDICAL CARE PAYMENTS. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1583 RELATING TO HEALTH CARE. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1613 MAKING AN APPROPRIATION FOR NURSING HOME WITHOUT WALLS. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1656 RELATING TO HUMAN SERVICES. HMS

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB699 RELATING TO CHILD WELFARE SERVICES. HMS/LBR

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB864 RELATING TO CHILD WELFARE SERVICES. HMS/LBR

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB927 RELATING TO AGING. HMS/WLA

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB42 RELATING TO WATERCRAFT. TMG/ECD

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1078 RELATING TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. TMG/ECD

    2/10/03 2:45 PM SB1491 RELATING TO STATE GOVERNMENT. TMG/ECD

    ”Date Time Bill Number Measure Title Committee”

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB296 RELATING TO ETHICS. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB966 RELATING TO RESOURCE MAXIMIZATION. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1018 RELATING TO GOVERNMENT SERVICES. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1047 RELATING TO THE USE OF SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBERS. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1146 RELATING TO CAMPAIGN SPENDING RECORDS. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1230 RELATING TO INSTANT RUNOFF VOTING. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1231 RELATING TO ELECTIONS. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1448 RELATING TO PUBLIC AGENCY MEETINGS. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1606 RELATING TO LEGISLATIVE ETHICS. TMG

    2/10/03 3:45 PM SB1636 RELATING TO PUBLIC AGENCY MEETINGS AND RECORDS. TMG

    Understanding Investing

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    When stock prices are heading down, ”’any”’ explanation as to why they’re heading down seems plausible; when stocks are heading up, ”’any”’ explanation as to why they’re heading up seems plausible. Experienced investors don’t concern themselves so much with the “explanations,” as they do with whether stock prices are moving up or down — as the only reality they need to concern themselves with. Meanwhile, those who have no actual experience in investing, are always very certain about their explanations as to why the markets behave as they do — justifying their rationalizations for never investing in the markets. According to their theories and valuation models, it would never be a good time to invest in the markets.

    One of the telltale signposts of whether a person actually understands the concept of “investing” as an investor or only from an “entitlements” perspective is whether they think that one should only invest once there is steady profitability and a stream of hefty dividends assured and guaranteed. The essential concept of investing is that one risks his money on an idea he thinks is worthwhile and that others may eventually also see as worthwhile. Therefore, the true investor will always invest before the profits are apparent — not after that fact is made manifest. That is the delusion of seeing everything with perfect 20/20 hindsight. One often mistakes the effect for the cause, and vice versa. People invest to produce profits — and not that profits must first manifest themselves before one can be this theoretical shrewd, prudent, rational investor.

    This is the typical “journalism” one unfortunately sees too much of in the financial press these days — along with just about every other area of journalism — because most of it is being produced/edited by people with journalism degrees, rather than real world experience. Thus this article on the stock market is a compilation of the usual half-baked ideas and common notions about what the market is supposed to do — compounded in today’s world by people with an agenda for propagating misinformation and disinformation that always seems quite plausible. In the general press, you are quite aware that there are interests in today’s society that propagates this class warfare — targeting the “rich,” of which the stock market is its most famous proxy. As a student of these things and writing, I cannot help but have noticed that over past several years, some of the most insidious writing undermining confidence in the stock market, prosperity, progress and well-being takes place under this innocent guise of reinforcing arbitrary rules as to what “should” be happening — as though they knew, or knew those who know.

    When you have stocks selling at a price-to earnings ratio of 1 while another is selling at 1,000, to say that stocks must be selling at a price to earnings ratio of 15 is rather presumptuous — and exhibits absolutely no intellectual rigor and understanding that theoretical models are more valid when they conform to the actualities of the experience rather than demanding that all phenomena conform to his expectations of how they ought to behave. Most of these times, knowledgeable readers don’t take these things seriously, and tolerate that people are entitled to their opinions/illusions — because one can’t police the world for all the erroneous misconceptions and fancies they can entertain. I have no problem with those who believe they are entitled to their say/opinion — as their say/opinion; what I find annoying are these people who feel their say/opinion is the truth — because they say so, or presumably know the people who know so.

    ”’Mike Hu is a resident of Honolulu and can be reached at”’ mailto:humikhu@aol.com

    Political Tittle-tattle: News and Entertainment from Hawaii's Political Arena – Feb. 7, 2003-Terror Threat to U.S. Raised From Yellow to Orange; Hawaii Has Own Terror Threat that Shuts Down Honolulu International Airport's Inter-island Terminal;Bills Seek to Take Rights Away From Firing Range Operators, Gun Owners; Bad, Bad Tax Bill Backed By Governor Heard Today; Elections Appointment and Review Panel Broke the Law; Aloha Stadium Management Makes Good?; More to the Misspellings at the State Capitol; Who'd Want to Adopt a Legislator?

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    “Malia headshot Image”

    ”Terror Threat to U.S. Raised From Yellow to Orange; Hawaii Has Own Terror Threat that Shuts Down Honolulu International Airport’s Inter-island Terminal”

    U.S. Attorney John Ashcroft this morning announced the Homeland Security Council increased the terrorism threat condition designation currently classified at “elevated risk” to “high-risk” –

    Political Tittle-tattle: News and Entertainment from Hawaii’s Political Arena – Feb. 7, 2003-Terror Threat to U.S. Raised From Yellow to Orange; Hawaii Has Own Terror Threat that Shuts Down Honolulu International Airport’s Inter-island Terminal;Bills Seek to Take Rights Away From Firing Range Operators, Gun Owners; Bad, Bad Tax Bill Backed By Governor Heard Today; Elections Appointment and Review Panel Broke the Law; Aloha Stadium Management Makes Good?; More to the Misspellings at the State Capitol; Who’d Want to Adopt a Legislator?

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    “Malia headshot Image”

    ”Terror Threat to U.S. Raised From Yellow to Orange; Hawaii Has Own Terror Threat that Shuts Down Honolulu International Airport’s Inter-island Terminal”

    U.S. Attorney John Ashcroft this morning announced the Homeland Security Council increased the terrorism threat condition designation currently classified at “elevated risk” to “high-risk” –

    Universal Health Care in Hawaii – A Foolish Proposal

    Universal Health Care in Hawaii – A Foolish Proposal

    Alan Matsuda

    I’m absolutely certain that Rep. Dennis Arakaki, D-Kalihi, is sincere and cares a great deal about Hawaii residents. But his proposal to create a new state authority to micro-manage our health-care industry is extremely foolish.

    Why create another mess similar to our public school system?

    Government in Hawaii has a sterling track record of executing very poorly. Yes, there are compelling reasons why government agencies can’t do a better job, but why expand the damage that government programs and government interference with free markets wreak on society?

    Last November, Oregon voters voted over 70 percent against Prop. 23, which would socialize health care in Oregon.

    If anything, Rep. Arakaki’s committee and other government entities should take steps to bring in to Hawaii more competition for HMSA and Kaiser, our duopoly medical insurers.

    Competition is the crucible that brings about good products and good services. Government entities and government workers are sheltered from competition and their output is often woeful beyond measure.

    I ask Rep. Arakaki, kindly cease your efforts on HB 1617 or anything similar to it.

    ”’Alan Matsuda is a Libertarian in Hawaii Kai. He can be reached via email at”’ mailto:matsuda77@worldnet.att.net

    World Can Rise to This Moment

    0

    The Secretary of State has now briefed the United Nations Security Council on Iraq’s illegal weapons programs, its attempts to hide those weapons, and its links to terrorist groups. I want to thank Secretary Powell for his careful and powerful presentation of the facts.

    The information in the Secretary’s briefing and other information in our possession was obtained through great skill, and often at personal risk. Uncovering secret information in a totalitarian society is one of the most difficult intelligence challenges. Those who accept that challenge, both in our intelligence services and in those of our friends and allies, perform a great service to all free nations. And I’m grateful for their good work.

    The Iraqi regime’s violations of Security Council resolutions are evident, and they continue to this hour. The regime has never accounted for a vast arsenal of deadly biological and chemical weapons. To the contrary; the regime is pursuing an elaborate campaign to conceal its weapons materiels, and to hide or intimidate key experts and scientists, all in direct defiance of Security Council 1441.

    This deception is directed from the highest levels of the Iraqi regime, including Saddam Hussein, his son, the Vice President, and the very official responsible for cooperating with inspectors. In intercepted conversations, we have heard orders to conceal materiels from the U.N. inspectors. And we have seen through satellite images concealment activity at close to 30 sites, including movement of equipment before inspectors arrive.

    The Iraqi regime has actively and secretly attempted to obtain equipment needed to produce chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Firsthand witnesses have informed us that Iraq has at least seven mobile factories for the production of biological agents, equipment mounted on trucks and rails to evade discovery. Using these factories, Iraq could produce within just months hundreds of pounds of biological poisons.

    The Iraqi regime has acquired and tested the means to deliver weapons of mass destruction. All the world has now seen the footage of an Iraqi Mirage aircraft with a fuel tank modified to spray biological agents over wide areas. Iraq has developed spray devices that could be used on unmanned aerial vehicles with ranges far beyond what is permitted by the Security Council. A UAV launched from a vessel off the American coast could reach hundreds of miles inland. Iraq has never accounted for thousands of bombs and shells capable of delivering chemical weapons. The regime is actively pursuing components for prohibited ballistic missiles. And we have sources that tell us that Saddam Hussein recently authorized Iraqi field commanders to use chemical weapons — the very weapons the dictator tells the world he does not have.

    One of the greatest dangers we face is that weapons of mass destruction might be passed to terrorists, who would not hesitate to use those weapons. Saddam Hussein has longstanding, direct and continuing ties to terrorist networks. Senior members of Iraqi intelligence and al Qaeda have met at least eight times since the early 1990s. Iraq has sent bomb-making and document forgery experts to work with al Qaeda. Iraq has also provided al Qaeda with chemical and biological weapons training.

    We also know that Iraq is harboring a terrorist network, headed by a senior al Qaeda terrorist planner. The network runs a poison and explosive training center in northeast Iraq, and many of its leaders are known to be in Baghdad. The head of this network traveled to Baghdad for medical treatment and stayed for months. Nearly two dozen associates joined him there and have been operating in Baghdad for more than eight months.

    The same terrorist network operating out of Iraq is responsible for the murder, the recent murder, of an American citizen, an American diplomat, Laurence Foley. The same network has plotted terrorism against France, Spain, Italy, Germany, the Republic of Georgia, and Russia, and was caught producing poisons in London. The danger Saddam Hussein poses reaches across the world.

    This is the situation as we find it. Twelve years after Saddam Hussein agreed to disarm, and 90 days after the Security Council passed Resolution 1441 by a unanimous vote, Saddam Hussein was required to make a full declaration of his weapons programs. He has not done so. Saddam Hussein was required to fully cooperate in the disarmament of his regime; he has not done so. Saddam Hussein was given a final chance; he is throwing that chance away.

    The dictator of Iraq is making his choice. Now the nations of the Security Council must make their own. On November 8th, by demanding the immediate disarmament of Iraq, the United Nations Security Council spoke with clarity and authority. Now the Security Council will show whether its words have any meaning. Having made its demands, the Security Council must not back down, when those demands are defied and mocked by a dictator.

    The United States would welcome and support a new resolution which makes clear that the Security Council stands behind its previous demands. Yet resolutions mean little without resolve. And the United States, along with a growing coalition of nations, is resolved to take whatever action is necessary to defend ourselves and disarm the Iraqi regime.

    On September the 11th, 2001, the American people saw what terrorists could do, by turning four airplanes into weapons. We will not wait to see what terrorists or terrorist states could do with chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons. Saddam Hussein can now be expected to begin another round of empty concessions, transparently false denials. No doubt, he will play a last-minute game of deception. The game is over.

    All the world can rise to this moment. The community of free nations can show that it is strong and confident and determined to keep the peace. The United Nations can renew its purpose and be a source of stability and security in the world. The Security Council can affirm that it is able and prepared to meet future challenges and other dangers. And we can give the Iraqi people their chance to live in freedom and choose their own government.

    Saddam Hussein has made Iraq into a prison, a poison factory, and a torture chamber for patriots and dissidents. Saddam Hussein has the motive and the means and the recklessness and the hatred to threaten the American people. Saddam Hussein will be stopped. Thank you.

    So What's Up With the Stock Market?

    0

    The stock market seems determined to contradict all those who have predicted an imminent rebound since it first began its decline. The questions have now gone from wondering when the market will rebound to how far will it fall. To understand the real roots of the problem one has to go back a tad more than three decades but this analysis will be restricted to the last decade.

    After the supposed stock market crash of 1987, which was really just a minor correction, Federal Reserve Chairman Allan Greenspan very cautiously eased the money supply. For those who don’t know what this means a brief digression into some Keynesian Economics is required.

    Keynesian Theory, the prevailing economic model of our times, asserts that economic growth is the result of individuals having ready cash to spend, and that by purchasing items with this ready cash, stimulate economic growth. The Federal Reserve makes this “ready cash” available through a number of means, too numerous to mention here, but each provides an avenue to make more money available to both businesses and consumers. This is known as “increasing liquidity.” This is a fancy name for cash, as opposed to homes, automobiles, gold or any other asset that cannot be readily converted to cash. It means what you can spend now. The government controls the level of growth of the economy by controlling this liquidity. This government control is the heart of Keynesian Theory.

    Greenspan’s caution was meant to prevent a singular outcome which is feared beyond all else, the great demon inflation. So the Federal Reserve monitors a plethora of indexes, from the price of bread to the price of automobiles, averages these all out, and comes up with an inflation index. What the inflation index actually measures is the loss in value of paper money, but a certain amount is thought necessary to stimulate economic growth. So the Fed very carefully expands the money supply, so that there are enough dollars out there, enough liquidity, to keep the economy humming along. At least that is the theory.

    In the 1990s the gradual increase of the money supply put money in the hands of individuals as intended, and the economy began to expand. Furthermore the lowering of interest rates prompted not only individuals but businesses to borrow, thereby purchasing more equipment and expanding their operations. They then hired more workers and as these workers spent their wages the economy expanded more and more demand appeared, justifying the borrowing, purchasing and expansions. Allan Greenspan and the Fed frantically looked this way and that but saw little signs of inflation rearing its ugly head. All seemed to be well.

    Into this scenario came a new kid in town, the Internet and the computer revolution. The information age had arrived. The increased liquidity and borrowing power that the easing of the money supply had wrought made it easy for the new players to get started. Start a new company, hang out your shingle on the World Wide Web and viola! You’re in business! With little capital investment, little overhead and little if any business planning almost anyone could now compete with the big guys. Almost everyone dreamed of being the next Steven Jobs and taking the world by storm. It seemed almost too good to be true.

    In order to service all these new companies, and the customers they would serve, other companies sprang up to install the infrastructure necessary to support them. These companies, such as Global Crossing, borrowed huge amounts of money to invest in endless miles of fiber optic cables to service the new economy. Internet providers sprung up like weeds and people began selling everything on the Internet from books to groceries to cars. A new day had dawned and the information age had arrived.

    Not everyone was thrilled though. There were economic analysts who began to question what was happening. They pointed out that many of these companies, with huge capital investments, had yet to make any profit, with no prospects they ever would. Further, though most had gone public and issued stock, those stocks were trading at levels that had never been seen before. Even more traditional companies had risen to unheard of levels as well. The traditional barometer of stock value, the price-to-earnings ratio had not only risen to the warning zone, but far surpassed it to shoot into the economic stratosphere. When these more traditional economists warned that maybe something was wrong, they were laughingly told that the business cycle had been repealed. Well, laws of economics, unlike the laws of men, cannot be repealed. What had inflated were stock prices, and such inflation is called a bubble.

    The standard rule of thumb in fundamental analysis of stocks is that a rational price-to-earnings ratio is around 15, that is to say that dividing the price of common stock by earnings per share in the previous 12 months results in a ratio of about 15:1, and when it rises above 20:1 or more it is cause for alarm, the price isn’t justified by the income. Some of the high tech stocks at the height of the boom in 1999 were in the area of 135:1 or more. Even traditional stocks, carried along by the burgeoning bubble were in the area of 60:1, which is anathema to fundamentalists. That Alan Greenspan recognized that this situation was hazardous was the source of his now infamous “irrational exuberance” comment in December 1996.

    In fact, the irrational exuberance that Greenspan feared was already well underway. Documents recently released from 1997 show that Greenspan wanted to begin to slow the economy then but was dissuaded by the Board of Governors. Inflation, that old bugaboo, was still within acceptable limits and there seemed to be no real reason to slow the economy down. So the growth continued apace.

    The problem with all this growth was that there was nothing there for it to support. It was analogous to building a road into the wilderness and then expecting people to come build houses. The “information age” was also built upon a fallacy — people cannot just trade information with one another, information only has value when it is used to create something, to create wealth — a fact that rarely occurred to anyone. Thousands of companies had gone into debt to provide services that ultimately were not going to be in demand.

    A perfect example of this is in Seattle where hundreds of miles of fiber optic cable were installed under the streets, underpinning nearly the entire metropolitan area with state of the art high speed connnectability. Yet these cables lie dark and unused because no one can afford to install the individual converters and lines that would run them the last few yards to the buildings themselves, to wire those buildings, and purchase the connections. The demand began to falter just as the final cables were being laid. This scenario was repeated all around this country and the much of the globe.

    Company upon company was built upon a phantom demand that would never materialize. Equipment was purchased, people were hired, buildings were constructed all with no other product other than an Internet connection. Even companies that were created to provide a service, such as Internet-ordered groceries which were then delivered in company trucks, failed to take into account the costs of such delivery or what a minuscule percentage of people would actually change their ways in favor of such a system. Things like coordinating delivery days and times for customer convenience eventually sank such ventures.

    So the stock market was confronted with a huge amount of money invested in companies that ultimately had no viability. So these companies failed and their assets were sold, sometimes for pennies on the dollar. The fact is though, this was the real valuation of what these companies were worth. This phase of liquidation to actual value is what is currently happening in the stock market, and the economy in general, world wide. Over-investment, bad investments and over priced stocks are slowly being liquidated to their real actual worth.

    Now one can assess the present value of the stock market. In Forbes.com Andrew T. Gillies noted February 1st of this year that the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 stood at 29, when it should be 15. This gives an indication of how much further the stock market will have to fall before it reaches sensible levels. It means that on average the stock market is still over priced by about double and a tremendous amount of overvalued assets needs to be liquidated to fair market values.

    The Dow Jones Industrials are currently hovering around 8,000, so surmising that its value is about double, on par with the S&P 500, then it isn’t unreasonable to assume the Dow will eventually fall to around 4000 before it rebounds. From a technical analysis point of view this would still fall within the safe range of a 2/3rds correction, measured from the beginning of the current stock market run up in the late 1980s, and not an actual depression. So the stock market will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, no matter what the economists say. The bubble is still in the process of bursting.

    ”’Don Newman is a freelance writer living in Waikiki and can be reached via email at”’ mailto:newmand001@hawaii.rr.com

    So What’s Up With the Stock Market?

    0

    The stock market seems determined to contradict all those who have predicted an imminent rebound since it first began its decline. The questions have now gone from wondering when the market will rebound to how far will it fall. To understand the real roots of the problem one has to go back a tad more than three decades but this analysis will be restricted to the last decade.

    After the supposed stock market crash of 1987, which was really just a minor correction, Federal Reserve Chairman Allan Greenspan very cautiously eased the money supply. For those who don’t know what this means a brief digression into some Keynesian Economics is required.

    Keynesian Theory, the prevailing economic model of our times, asserts that economic growth is the result of individuals having ready cash to spend, and that by purchasing items with this ready cash, stimulate economic growth. The Federal Reserve makes this “ready cash” available through a number of means, too numerous to mention here, but each provides an avenue to make more money available to both businesses and consumers. This is known as “increasing liquidity.” This is a fancy name for cash, as opposed to homes, automobiles, gold or any other asset that cannot be readily converted to cash. It means what you can spend now. The government controls the level of growth of the economy by controlling this liquidity. This government control is the heart of Keynesian Theory.

    Greenspan’s caution was meant to prevent a singular outcome which is feared beyond all else, the great demon inflation. So the Federal Reserve monitors a plethora of indexes, from the price of bread to the price of automobiles, averages these all out, and comes up with an inflation index. What the inflation index actually measures is the loss in value of paper money, but a certain amount is thought necessary to stimulate economic growth. So the Fed very carefully expands the money supply, so that there are enough dollars out there, enough liquidity, to keep the economy humming along. At least that is the theory.

    In the 1990s the gradual increase of the money supply put money in the hands of individuals as intended, and the economy began to expand. Furthermore the lowering of interest rates prompted not only individuals but businesses to borrow, thereby purchasing more equipment and expanding their operations. They then hired more workers and as these workers spent their wages the economy expanded more and more demand appeared, justifying the borrowing, purchasing and expansions. Allan Greenspan and the Fed frantically looked this way and that but saw little signs of inflation rearing its ugly head. All seemed to be well.

    Into this scenario came a new kid in town, the Internet and the computer revolution. The information age had arrived. The increased liquidity and borrowing power that the easing of the money supply had wrought made it easy for the new players to get started. Start a new company, hang out your shingle on the World Wide Web and viola! You’re in business! With little capital investment, little overhead and little if any business planning almost anyone could now compete with the big guys. Almost everyone dreamed of being the next Steven Jobs and taking the world by storm. It seemed almost too good to be true.

    In order to service all these new companies, and the customers they would serve, other companies sprang up to install the infrastructure necessary to support them. These companies, such as Global Crossing, borrowed huge amounts of money to invest in endless miles of fiber optic cables to service the new economy. Internet providers sprung up like weeds and people began selling everything on the Internet from books to groceries to cars. A new day had dawned and the information age had arrived.

    Not everyone was thrilled though. There were economic analysts who began to question what was happening. They pointed out that many of these companies, with huge capital investments, had yet to make any profit, with no prospects they ever would. Further, though most had gone public and issued stock, those stocks were trading at levels that had never been seen before. Even more traditional companies had risen to unheard of levels as well. The traditional barometer of stock value, the price-to-earnings ratio had not only risen to the warning zone, but far surpassed it to shoot into the economic stratosphere. When these more traditional economists warned that maybe something was wrong, they were laughingly told that the business cycle had been repealed. Well, laws of economics, unlike the laws of men, cannot be repealed. What had inflated were stock prices, and such inflation is called a bubble.

    The standard rule of thumb in fundamental analysis of stocks is that a rational price-to-earnings ratio is around 15, that is to say that dividing the price of common stock by earnings per share in the previous 12 months results in a ratio of about 15:1, and when it rises above 20:1 or more it is cause for alarm, the price isn’t justified by the income. Some of the high tech stocks at the height of the boom in 1999 were in the area of 135:1 or more. Even traditional stocks, carried along by the burgeoning bubble were in the area of 60:1, which is anathema to fundamentalists. That Alan Greenspan recognized that this situation was hazardous was the source of his now infamous “irrational exuberance” comment in December 1996.

    In fact, the irrational exuberance that Greenspan feared was already well underway. Documents recently released from 1997 show that Greenspan wanted to begin to slow the economy then but was dissuaded by the Board of Governors. Inflation, that old bugaboo, was still within acceptable limits and there seemed to be no real reason to slow the economy down. So the growth continued apace.

    The problem with all this growth was that there was nothing there for it to support. It was analogous to building a road into the wilderness and then expecting people to come build houses. The “information age” was also built upon a fallacy — people cannot just trade information with one another, information only has value when it is used to create something, to create wealth — a fact that rarely occurred to anyone. Thousands of companies had gone into debt to provide services that ultimately were not going to be in demand.

    A perfect example of this is in Seattle where hundreds of miles of fiber optic cable were installed under the streets, underpinning nearly the entire metropolitan area with state of the art high speed connnectability. Yet these cables lie dark and unused because no one can afford to install the individual converters and lines that would run them the last few yards to the buildings themselves, to wire those buildings, and purchase the connections. The demand began to falter just as the final cables were being laid. This scenario was repeated all around this country and the much of the globe.

    Company upon company was built upon a phantom demand that would never materialize. Equipment was purchased, people were hired, buildings were constructed all with no other product other than an Internet connection. Even companies that were created to provide a service, such as Internet-ordered groceries which were then delivered in company trucks, failed to take into account the costs of such delivery or what a minuscule percentage of people would actually change their ways in favor of such a system. Things like coordinating delivery days and times for customer convenience eventually sank such ventures.

    So the stock market was confronted with a huge amount of money invested in companies that ultimately had no viability. So these companies failed and their assets were sold, sometimes for pennies on the dollar. The fact is though, this was the real valuation of what these companies were worth. This phase of liquidation to actual value is what is currently happening in the stock market, and the economy in general, world wide. Over-investment, bad investments and over priced stocks are slowly being liquidated to their real actual worth.

    Now one can assess the present value of the stock market. In Forbes.com Andrew T. Gillies noted February 1st of this year that the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 stood at 29, when it should be 15. This gives an indication of how much further the stock market will have to fall before it reaches sensible levels. It means that on average the stock market is still over priced by about double and a tremendous amount of overvalued assets needs to be liquidated to fair market values.

    The Dow Jones Industrials are currently hovering around 8,000, so surmising that its value is about double, on par with the S&P 500, then it isn’t unreasonable to assume the Dow will eventually fall to around 4000 before it rebounds. From a technical analysis point of view this would still fall within the safe range of a 2/3rds correction, measured from the beginning of the current stock market run up in the late 1980s, and not an actual depression. So the stock market will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, no matter what the economists say. The bubble is still in the process of bursting.

    ”’Don Newman is a freelance writer living in Waikiki and can be reached via email at”’ mailto:newmand001@hawaii.rr.com

    HIV-AIDS: Poverty Disease?

    0

    Should Africa focus on trade and investment or on HIV/AIDS handouts? In his State of Union address, President Bush of America announced that he would ask the Congress to commit $15 billion over the next five years to turn the tide against HIV/AIDS in the most afflicted nations in Africa and the Caribbean.

    Kenya will finally receive $179.4 million from the UN Global Fund to fight AIDS and other diseases. The health ministry indicated that $129 million of this would go to the fight on HIV/AIDS, $33.6 to malaria and $11.2 to tuberculosis. However, to check the tide against AIDS Africans, really need economic empowerment through trade and productivity. Countries may receive all sorts of aid packages, but as long as they subject their populations to policies that sustain them in poverty, there is a danger diseases will be turned into a tool of global politics.

    It may well be that the famine in southern African countries is largely attributable to the HIV/AIDS scourge. With over 7 million agricultural workers killed since 1985, crop output plummeted nearly 60 percent. The news from United States of America is certainly welcome. But will Africa put in place the infrastructure to absorb the aid?

    Is Africa more sexually active than the rest of the world? Africa accounts for 70 percent of the global population of people with HIV/AIDS and 80 percent of global deaths from AIDS. Wealthy countries have fewer cases than the poor countries. The incidence of HIV/AIDS in the urban areas has been lower than that in the rural areas. In some countries such as South Africa, this disease has tended to annihilate more of the black Africans than the white Africans. What could really be the problem?

    According to a June 2000 report on Incidence and Depth of Poverty in Kenya (by the Kenya Ministry of Finance and Planning), Nyanza province leads with 63 percent of its population living below poverty line. Coast Province follows with 61 percent, Western and Eastern 58 percent, and Central performs better with 31 percent. The report used consumption rather than income to measure living standards and defined the poor as those who are unable to afford minimum needs, such as food and non-food items. With a few exceptions, poorer districts have tended to have higher incidents of HIV/AIDS related deaths because their people have already been weakened by malnutrition, malaria, dysentery and other diseases.

    Provinces like Nyanza, Western, Coast and parts of Eastern have been the hardest hit due to both poverty and culture. Taboos on sexuality and wife inheritance have contributed to high incidences of this disease in some areas; ignorance has also been a major contributor in low-income districts. With an estimated 500 Kenyans dying every day, one wonders why governments should be preaching about a population “explosion’. The figures peddled by HIV/AIDS agencies point to a possible population “implosion” that calls for emergency measures. While implementing measures to curb the HIV/AIDS epidemic, Kenya ought to review its family planning program, to ensure that its population stabilizes.

    It is urgent that Kenya (and by extension Africa) addresses issues that make it difficult for her people to access health care. Our countries ought to review the regulatory and bureaucratic barriers, taxation, licensing of drugs, corruption, poverty and infrastructure that make it difficult for people to access medicines. Intellectual property rights rules have been cited as another possible barrier, although on-the-ground evidence indicates the opposite.

    For instance, Kenya has recorded high incidences of malaria deaths, and anti-malarial drugs are not subject to patent restrictions. This year alone, 15 people have already lost their lives. This being a seasonal disease, it’s predictable that between May and July more people will perish. What measures are in place to reduce these deaths? The government has been unable to address this annual phenomenon. Why must it wait for aid to tackle malaria, typhoid and other diseases?

    Giving medicine to the hungry that live in poor sanitary conditions, consume untreated water and are illiterate will not reverse the scourge. MERCK & Co together with other pharmaceutical companies under the umbrella of UNAIDS have reduced the prices of their ARVs by 80-90 percent to countries in the developing world where the AIDS pandemic is a threat to human populations. Niraj Doshi, a representative of MERCK in Eastern Africa estimates that since his company lowered prices in 2001 for Anti Retroviral Drugs, the number of beneficiaries increased ten times and the number could be higher if the link to economic empowerment is addressed. Despite the lowered price, it is still expensive for the average Kenyan hence the urgent need to facilitate wealth creation that will not only lead to more access but also grant economic independence to consumers.

    One way to promote economic growth is to put in place policies that will make it easier for Kenyans to produce and market their commodities. In agriculture, farmers should be in a position to access credit, small business people should not be bogged down by excessive licensing procedures, and communities should be allowed to operate community tourist hotels that will cater to visitors who want to sample African lifestyles. Kenya must eliminate corruption and implement the rule of law, to ensure that contracts are enforceable. We must create a system that lets Kenyan and inter-African trade thrive.

    No community or government can tackle disease when its people are barely surviving on $1 a day. Developing countries also face impossible odds because their exports are confined to only primary products, and processed commodities face high tariffs imposed by rich nations. Poor countries also lack the technical expertise to interpret legal documents and negotiate in world trade bodies. To develop this expertise, they rely on rich country machinery and NGOs that do not have Kenya’s or Africa’s best interests at heart.

    Many products from the poor countries face quarantine rules, which are basically a trade barrier to agricultural products. Products from Africa are subjected to sanitary and environmental standards (on pesticides and biotechnology, for example) that simply block them out of the richer markets. In most cases, movement of people from poor to rich countries is also restricted through difficult visa requirements. One can hardly trade without surveying your potential market! Together with export subsidies and price-distorting domestic subsidies, this has severely harmed economic growth in poor countries.

    Unless the people of Africa are allowed to be productive and prosperous, aid in the form of cheaper medicines alone will not alleviate its health problems. More efforts should be put in place to remove barriers to health care. The African people are not more sexually active than the rest of the world. They simply suffer from stress and generally ill health due to corruption, bad laws and harmful policies imposed by their own and rich foreign governments.

    ”’James S. Shikwati is the Director of Inter Region Economic Network [IREN Kenya]. He can be reached at P.O. Box 135 GPO Code 00100 NAIROBI KENYA, Phone/Fax 254-2-2723258, Cell 254-733-823062 or by email at”’ mailto:james@irenkenya.org ”’His Web site is found at”’ https://www.irenkenya.org