Panos Prevedouros, PHD
Panos Prevedouros, PHD

BY PANOS PREVEDOUROS PHD – Tesla is not only reinventing the car…  They are reinventing applied science, industrial product development and infrastructure planning.

At Toyota “we get a lot of standards and specifications, then we build a prototype and test it. At Tesla they get the standards and specifications set, and then change it on the fly. They spend more time in the validation phase. We spend more time in up-front planning.”

Typically we plan and design infrastructure (e.g., energy and transportation systems) too much. But rarely we go back and validate whether systems really worked as intended…

Unofficial assessments:

  • Did the H-3 Freeway meet its traffic target?  It exceeded it.
  • Did the Kal. Hwy widening relieve Hawaii Kai to Kahala trip times? Travel times were reduced by over ~25%.

Official assessments:

  • Do modern (built after 1995) light and heavy rail systems in any city in the US meet or exceed their planned ridership that justified their construction, after 5 or10 years in operation?
  • Nine out of 10 failed to do this. Several of them spectacularly. The largest US failure (after Tren Urbano in Puerto Rico) will be Honolulu.

Comments

comments

5 COMMENTS

  1. Unsure if you're recommending Tesla, but, if you want to make a killing in the market, short the stock. Elon Musk is a smart marketing and technical guy, but his company emailed potential customers in March to push sales into the first quarter, which inflated revenues. Not that unusual, perhaps, but there are serious doubts as to vehicle unit counts and legitimate concerns about cancellations.
    <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/video/BuMnZvYTqwGW3jTpBJBMhVJqoz3dpyzc?autoplay=1” target=”_blank”>http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/video/BuMnZvYTqwGW3jTpBJBMhVJqoz3dpyzc?autoplay=1

    • @palani, shorting the stick is the easiest way to lose your money. But it is your money to waste so feel free.

      It is clearly indicated in the SEC filing that revenue only included cars that were delivered and signed for. That means that even if that email happened or not makes no difference. Musk has commented that the email in question was sent by Tesla employees who were too enthusiastic but failed to realize that regardless of what they did, it would not have effected the outcome one way or the other. Think of it like a disconnect with sales and accounting.

      Right now, Tesla is supply capped not demand capped. I suggest you read up on all the latest information. That video is from April before the filing and m

  2. @palani, shorting the stick is the easiest way to lose your money. But it is your money to waste so feel free.

    It is clearly indicated in the SEC filing that revenue only included cars that were delivered and signed for. That means that even if that email happened or not makes no difference. Musk has commented that the email in question was sent by Tesla employees who were too enthusiastic but failed to realize that regardless of what they did, it would not have effected the outcome one way or the other. Think of it like a disconnect with sales and accounting.

    Right now, Tesla is supply capped not demand capped. I suggest you read up on all the latest information. That video is from April before the filing and most of the stuff in that video was just speculation that was cleared up once the official earnings report is out.

  3. The politically powerful Hawaii Kai residents got the politicians to limit more housing in East Honolulu and this is why their traffic conditions did not get worse. On the windward side, they also limited growth but the same number of people living there after H-3 opened, dumps more traffic into the city, worsening congestion there. So, more highways means more traffic. Panio has it all wrong.

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