BY DYLAN NONAKA – The final results of the Hawaii Presidential Caucuses are in and here are the final totals for each candidate:
- Mitt Romney – 4,548 44.47%
- Rick Santorum – 2,589 25.31%
- Ron Paul – 1,975 19.31%
- Newt Gingrich – 1,116- 10.91%
Total turnout: 10,239
I made sure to include the exact percentage breakdown because they highlight the importance of every vote. Due to Hawaii Republican Party rules, allocation of delegates follows one very simple concept – you round up. As an example, if a candidate gets 40.01% of the votes, for purposes of delegate allocation their percentage would be 41%.
You subsequently multiply the total number of delegates by 41% and apply the round up concept again. Using the former percentage, you take 41% and multiply by 11 (the number of statewide delegates available) and you get 4.51 delegates. This is rounded to 5 and that is the number of delegates that candidate receives from the statewide allocation.
Using this formula, the number of delegates won by each candidate are:
- Mitt Romney – 9
- Rick Santorum – 5
- Ron Paul – 3
- Newt Gingrich – 0
This is a strong illustration of how every vote makes a big difference, especially in a close race for delegates like this year. If Mitt Romney would have gotten an additional 101 votes, he would have had 45.01% of the vote instead of 44.47%. 45.01% would have been rounded to 46% and then multiplied by 11. That results in 5.06 delegates rounded up to 6 resulting in an extra statewide delegate for Romney; giving him 10 total instead of 9.
It is also interesting to look at turnout by location. The chart below shows the total number of votes cast at each polling location statewide. Please note that the Laie polling location is literally off the chart. There was 1,108 votes cast there; I had to scale the chart down so the rest of the polling locations are readable.
As you can see, there are 12 out of 41 polling locations where turnout was above 300 total. This is a good measure of the strength of the Republican base in these areas. But if you look at who is actually representing these areas, 6 of the 12 districts are held by Democrats.
Here are the 6 polling locations where the caucus turnout was above 300 but is currently represented by a Democrat.
- Mililani Mauka
- Enchanted lake in Kailua Oahu
- Kealakehe in Kailua Kona
- Mayor Tavares Rec Center in Upcountry Maui
Lots of good information and data has been collected as a result of these caucuses and knowing where the Republican base is strongest and most motivated could turn out to be a deciding factor in the 2012 election. Anyone looking to increase the number of Republicans elected in Hawaii should be looking for candidates in these areas.
If you have additional thoughts, analysis, ideas or questions about these results, let me know. I would like to learn as much as possible from this effort and am always looking for additional perspectives.
Thanks for taking the time to read this email, take care and talk to you soon.
Dylan Nonaka is a Partner in the The Kahua Group LLC. More on the web at www.kahuagroup.com